I can't believe I missed this one

camestrosfelapton

February 11

Look I'd stop if I could but it is like staring into a Mandelbrot set. Sure it does all look like the same mess of swirling nonsense but each time you see new details. Jameson Quinn was digging into this on BlueSky weeks ago and I meant to look into it further but there are just so many issues (see https://bsky.app/profile/voter.bsky.social/post/3kjll7c46tf2p and later https://bsky.app/profile/voter.bsky.social/post/3kjnx3gcork2s)

In Best Novel, we've already seen that the EPH points make no sense and don't match actual votes but there is an extra issue with Ray Nayler's The Mountain in the Sea and others. To make it clearer here is a screenshot of the difference in points between rounds.

When Residual Light is eliminated the points shift to The Red Stone and The Mountain in the Sea. When The Red Stone is eliminated the points (hefty chunks of them) go to The Mountain in the Sea and nowhere else.

One obvious explanation (that would also account for the impossible numbers we saw from people's actual ballots volunteered here) is THAT IS NOT The Mountain in the Sea.

The Red Stone itself has quirky numbers: 113 votes and 60 points initially. The round number stands out but it is feasible. If 53 voted for it and one other (2 works per ballot) and 7 people just voted for it and nothing else (or other things since eliminated) then that comes to 113 votes and 60 points. Go any further than that and you'll need to dig through the calculations Jameson did, which sort of work out as a possible combination of votes but which look fake.