 | camestrosfelapton February 1 | I just can't shake this habit. 100% new topic tomorrow, I promise. A preamble first. When looking at the 2023 stats we need to consider what things would be like if everything was fine. There would still be unusual features because the voting population was different: - Repeat Hugo voters who would vote in similar patterns to past years. Maybe fewer of them than normal because of various factors around the con (GoH concerns, sinophobia among some people, ballot access difficulties, delays etc). We would not expect a big increase in these voters & probably a drop off.
- New Chinese voters. We wouldn't know in advance how many or the extent that they would vote for English-language works or predominately Chinese-language works. Past Worldcons outside of North America have had a very mixed input from local fans.
What it does mean is we would expect an increase to be additive rather than multiplicative — an increase would be the addition of a new community of fans. This helps with thinking about looking at changes because we should probably use subtraction rather than division. We have the nomination stats now and, as you all know, they aren't in a good state but I thought I'd dig into a hypothesis. I would expect the categories with more Chinese-language nominees to have, on average, the biggest increases in voters than the categories with fewer Chinese-language nominees. That seems reasonable. As we are on the lookout for problems, there are three ways this could end up with me raising my eyebrows: - very little sign of a relationship — not super suspicious but surprising.
- a negative relationship — this would be very counter-intuitive.
- too perfect a relationship — real data is noisy, fake data often isn't
So here is the table. | | | |  | You can also reply to this email to leave a comment. | | | | |
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