Analysing Havering's politics is as futile as nailing jelly to the ceiling. Councillors change sides and voters are ignored. Will 'Carry on Splintering,' lead to a third administration in four years?
Havering Residents' Association 2022: 19 councillors: NOW: 26
HRA came second in 2022 and formed a coalition with Labour. Seven Conservative and a Labour councillor have joined them, leading to a Minority Administration. HRA lost a councillor when Philip Ruck defected to Cranham RAs.
Semi-detached councillor: Paul Middleton doesn't appear on St Andrew's HRA literature.
Conservative: 2022: 23 councillors: NOW: 16
Romford Conservatives have suffered badly from three Conservative Prime Ministers: Boris 'Partygate' Johnson, Liz 'Bonkers' Truss and Rishi 'D Day' Sunak. Councillors have caught the vibe and seven have defected.
Semi-detached councillor: Damian White with two attendances in six months.1
Labour: 2022: 9 councillors: NOW: 8
Labour came third and entered a coalition with HRA, which collapsed when Paul McGeary defected. Will Labour be an effective opposition?
East Havering RAs: 2022: 3 councillors: NOW: 3
They supported the Conservatives, 2018-22. Tiny, but could be pivotal in the future.
Cranham RAs : 2022: 1 councillor: NOW: 2 councillors
They are 'True Believer' Residents. They should fear the Data Centre proposition, which is toxic for their core supporters.
Summary: Disgracefully, nine councillors have changed sides without by-elections.2
2024-6: Ray Morgon's Captain Birdseye impression at Annual Council,3 conceals a ruthless politician. Keeping HRA together will be difficult as the Labour government maintains the current funding regime. Removing limits on increases in Council Tax leaves HRA exposed. Substantial increases in Council Tax will be necessary to avoid another ruinous loan.
Can HRA take the pressure? Probably not.
Notes
1 Attendance record - Councillor Damian White | The London Borough Of Havering
2 The churn is 16%
3 Havering's Annual Council, 22nd May 2024 – Politics in Havering
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