For me, one of the big things to improving yourself as a teacher and a coach is finding ideas from other subjects and fields and seeing if they have applicability to my coaching/teaching.
So this is something that had bounced in and out of my mind for a number of years. It's about a general principle of stocks and how they perform--so let me do the disclaimers...there are always exceptions, I'm not a stock analyst, blah, blah, blah.
Most stocks are given floors and ceilings. These are price ranges that the stock is expected to remain within. As an example (as of this writing), Apple stock is at $155.81. If you go looking, information will tell you there is a floor of $154.67 and a ceiling of $171.05. That means in the near future, it would be quite a story if Apple dropped below $154 and would be equally surprising if it popped up to over $171.
The thing is--that sort of thing DOES happen with stocks. Prices move--and once a stock is able to break through, it almost never (in a normal market) goes back to where it had been previously--so that if Apple fell to $151 somehow, it would be unlikely to see it get back over $154.67. If it broke $171, you'd be unlikely to see it drop lower than that again. Of course, there are always circumstances that affect things like this--war in Ukraine, tension with China, profit-taking at the end of a year, etc.
I think team building works the same way. I think there are certain levels of teams:
- Horrible
- Not Good
- Average
- Good
- Top 10%
- Championship Contender
Reasonable coaches have a fair idea of where their teams fall into these categories, I think. I think the Chicago Bears are trying to be 'not good' rather than 'horrible.' I think Golden State knows they are 'championship contenders'--and that right now the Yankees are worried they are 'top 10%' rather than a title contender.
I thought back to my past coaching--and it is important to be honest with evaluations--you KNOW which of your teams overperformed or underperformed. I think the concept of floors/ceilings works with teams.
I think it is easy to remain within a level. Ultimately, this is simply doing what has always been done. It can be done on autopilot basically.
I think it is difficult to drop more than one level. I think it takes a coaching change of philosophy, potentially a change in administrative support. For college, it can also happen with 1-2 poor recruiting classes consecutively or issues within a coaching staff--something where the assistant(s) think me-first rather than of the team. A drop may not be noticeable right away either if a coach leaves; after all, the recruits are still in place (college) or with high school, usually there will be similar talent in the next 1-2 grade levels. It's only 1-2 years down the road where you can really evaluate the effect of a coaching downgrade.
Just as it's difficult to drop, it's hard to climb.
--INTERRUPTION: It just dawned on me...there's another reason for inertia in teams switching levels. Sports are competitive. Ultimately, for a team to drop/climb, it's a zero-sum switch. A team gets worse, someone else has to be in position to get better (and vice-versa).
Climbing requires a combination of factors. I think for college it requires a series of good recruiting classes. Regardless of age level, I think it also requires a coaching staff willing to commit to the athletes and athletes buying in in order to move up. Anyone not on board--that screws it all up. I think it requires administrative support...whether that's money, backup in case of parent complaints about playing-time decisions, etc.
It also takes time and consistency. With my first HC job, the seniors that year had been given everything by the previous coach--including blatantly breaking IHSA rules about player usage limitations (as freshmen and sophomores, those athletes played every set of F/S, JV, AND V contests, so that by the time they were seniors, they'd played NINE 'seasons' of HS VB!!!). In any event, that group took the program from horrible to good. It took four more years to make it a top 10% program and in the 20+ years since that point, the program has NEVER fallen below 'good'--that's a hard floor to drop through once you have consistent expectations established.
It was the same at LLCC, taking over a team that would beat bad teams but would never beat good ones. That took six years to turn from average to Top 10% and another three to go to Championship Contender though after three more years, it was back to being Top 10% level....
Can you plan for the breakthrough moment when you beat against that ceiling?
I don't think so. I think you will know it when it arrives--but you won't see it coming until it is past.
With my first job, the real breakthrough came in my fourth season. It was the first match of 1999 when we played one of the five winningest programs in state history on their home court (SHG) and we won. The next day was 100 degrees and I was going to cut practice short--and the girls demanded we go full speed the full time. They sensed the change. None of us expected to beat SHG but we did and it just all mentally clicked--'hey, we're pretty decent.'
With LLCC, it had to happen twice. In 2012, it was when we beat a rival school for the first time in school history, sweeping them in straight sets. That confidence carried us to the first National Championships appearance in school history--and then I recruited two poor human beings (100% my fault) AND had the indecency to have a heart incident in 2013 so we couldn't sustain what we did with 2012. Back to the blackboard. We did that and struggled through much of 2014...but in 2015, I thought we were back to being good--we got to the first tourney of the year and easily beat three ranked teams to start things off. We then won 10 straight and took the eventual national champs to five on their home court. It created a killer mindset. This time it stuck through more than just that season.
But let's be clear-- it wasn't me who did it. It was the attitude of the athletes that proved the critical factor. Once they believed and matched mental determination with their physical skills, very little got in their way and they NEVER went into matches thinking anything other than "we've got this".
For me, remembering this now is crucial since I'm back to being a first-year coach--because program-building requires time and patience. I think our plan for getting better is sound and there's definitely improvement...and I am sure you should have a coherent plan for improvement, BUT I am also sure that WHEN you break through, it's time to toss away the plan and run, run, run upwards as fast as you can...those are the special days for coaches and players. There's time later to make a new plan preparing to shatter the next ceiling above you.
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